Mexico’s inflation rate just hit 3.93% in April 2025, creeping uncomfortably close to the central bank’s 4% ceiling. Core inflation matched the headline rate, while services inflation stubbornly sits at 4.56%. Food and energy prices are climbing too. Despite economists forecasting a 3.9% rate and Citi projecting 3.8% for year-end, the steady march upward has everyone sweating. The Bank of Mexico’s next move might reveal if that ceiling is really made of glass.
Mexico’s latest inflation reading has edged closer to dangerous territory, hitting 3.93% in April 2025.
This marks the highest rate so far this year, creeping uncomfortably close to the Bank of Mexico’s 4% ceiling.
Sure, it’s still technically under control – but let’s not kid ourselves about where this is heading.
The usual suspects are driving the surge.
Food, beverages, and tobacco prices shot up to 3.38% from 2.98% in March.
Services inflation? That’s climbing too, now at 4.56%.
At least energy prices gave us a break, easing to 2.47%.
Small victories, right?
Core inflation took quite a jump, leaping to 3.93% from 2.64%.
That’s the kind of number that keeps central bankers up at night, though they’ll never admit it.
Central bank policy plays a crucial role in managing these inflationary pressures through various monetary tools.
The economists got this one mostly right – their 3.9% forecast was pretty much on the money.
Even Citi’s research team is playing it cool, projecting 3.8% for both year-end 2025 and 2026.
Looking back, it’s been a steady climb.
March sat at 3.8%, February at 3.77%.
Notice a pattern?
The increases might be small, but they’re persistent.
Like water dripping on a rock – eventually, something’s got to give.
The breakdown tells an interesting story.
While agricultural goods inflation dropped to 4.13%, services remain stubbornly high.
Month-over-month, prices crept up by 0.33% in April.
Not exactly catastrophic, but enough to raise eyebrows.
The half-point rate cut expected at the May 15 meeting could provide some relief.
INEGI’s official figures paint a clear picture: we’re dancing right up against that 4% ceiling.
The Lightweight Charts™ data visualization tools help track these concerning inflation trends.
The Bank of Mexico can keep monitoring all they want, but the numbers don’t lie.
While analysts maintain their composure about staying under the threshold, that psychological barrier of 4% is looking more like a speed bump than a wall.
The real question isn’t whether we’ll hit it – it’s when.
